Will Preval Prevail?

A reader sends this email:

"There is something that I have been wondering about that you touched on in your blog. Perhaps you can clarify the matter for me. Preval appears to have won 48% of the vote in as orderly an election as Haiti could possibly conduct. He will win the second ballot. Shouldn't his supporters be celebrating instead of rioting?"

It's a good question. I have a few theories.

First, most of the electorate is frustrated and deeply disenchanted with democracy. In a sense, the masses voted 16 years ago for their leader, but they never really got him. In Haiti, electoral power has rarely translated into political power.

Second, I'd wager that a runoff or any other delay would jeopardize Preval's chances. The leading opposition candidate-- Leslie Maginat, with 12% of the vote--would have more time to get his vote machines churning. Indeed, one of the right-wing justifications for the numerous delays of the Haitian elections was that with more time, candidates besides Preval would have a better chance.

Third, and perhaps most important, the elections may not have been as orderly as the reader imagines. Preval's supporters claim fraud, apparently not without merit: Upwards of 200,000 ballots have been voided or were blank.

Those are my theories. Please share yours.